CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-03T02:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30409/-1
CME Note: A faint CME with narrow brighter front with filamentary structures (likely the bulk) and a wider fainter but slower front (likely the shock). The source is the X1.6 class flare (N26E05) from AR 3663 peaking at 2024-05-03T02:22Z and an eruption with a faint narrow ejecta seen in AIA 193 directed mostly towards the NE and a faint dimming mostly NE of the active region and post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193. Arrival signature: gradual CME arrival signature (likely a flank impact/glancing blow) which on 2024-05-06 is followed by the onset of a high speed stream. There is no shock but a steady growth in magnetic field to 16nT on 2024-05-06, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components, with a prolonged bout of negative Bz (below 10 nT) on the evening of 2024-05-05. The ICME signature also includes an initial build up of ion density and temperature, followed by drops in both parameters.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T11:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T23:25Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
SIDC URSIGRAM 40504 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 May 2024, 1230UT Coronal mass ejections: ... Further analysis of the CME, seen at 03:01 UTC on May 03, associated with NOAA AR 3663 and a X1.7-flare shows a possible arrival late on May 05 or early on May 06.Lead Time: 24.72 hour(s)
Difference: -11.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-05-04T10:47Z
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